According to Bank of America, Elon Musk’s inability to grow Tesla’s market share quickly enough will cause it to fall sharply over the next several years. According to Bank of America analyst John Murphy’s annual Car Wars estimate, conventional automotive giants Ford and General Motors will surpass Tesla by 2025 while the world’s wealthiest man’s net worth plummets.
Rather than maintaining its present market share of more than 70%, Murphy forecasts that by 2025, Tesla’s share would fall to only 11%. Murphy predicts that Ford and General Motors will lead the way in terms of market share with 15 percent each, despite the fact that yearly sales are forecast to treble from 800,000 to 3.2 million. Musk will pay for failing to lock up the market when there was minimal competition, according to Murphy, whose personal worth has fallen by $62 billion this year.
Since there hasn’t been any competition, Elon has had a “vacuum” in which to operate for the last ten years, according to Murphy. In the next four years, extremely excellent products—rather than econobox or toaster-box EVs—will fill that need in a significant manner.
When people reflect on this in five to ten years, Murphy said, “One of the major errors they will make is that Tesla didn’t take more advantage of the free money it might have received, raise much more, open capacity quicker, develop much faster, and close the door.”
“He didn’t (Musk). He wasn’t moving quickly enough. He was unaware of what was happening in the market. He had a lot of arrogance to think they couldn’t catch him or accomplish what he was trying, but they did. He is launching his products more slowly. Because he doesn’t have a complete product line, manufacturers have a big window of opportunity to fill it and catch up.
Murphy said that GM will introduce 17 new EV models between 2023 and 2026 as part of its $35 billion investment in EVs and driverless cars. Ford, which aims to invest $50 billion, will introduce six models and expects to produce two million units annually. Volkswagen will have 11 at that time, while Hyundai and Kia will each have 13, cutting into Tesla’s market share.
However, it is just one man’s forecast, and Murphy anticipates further growth in Tesla’s total sales as the electric car industry expands. According to Teslarati.com writer Simon Alvarez, things aren’t always bad for Musk.
“Considering that Tesla has been experiencing supply constraints for the last several years, Murphy’s findings are rather intriguing. With only two cars — the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover — the firm is virtually holding back a tide of rivals today, yet it is still succeeding. Another thing to keep in mind is that Tesla’s cars are always becoming better, and these upgrades are often delivered through free over-the-air software updates.
“In a manner, the conclusions were drawn by the Bank of America analyst on Tesla and Elon Musk’s ‘hubris’ seem to be rather inaccurate. Tesla’s EV market share does not seem to be in jeopardy despite the Cybertruck and Semi hitting the market and the Model Y perhaps on track to become one of the best-selling vehicles in the world. Due to a lack of fuel economy regulations, Australia is falling behind much of the rest of the globe in the adoption of electric cars.